From Grudging Respect to Disquiet: Russia Weighs Up the Ousting of Venezuela's Leader.

A surprise raid against the capital city in the dead of night, culminating in the capture of the country's president. By the next morning, the intervening power announces its intention to govern indefinitely.

That is precisely how Vladimir Putin envisaged his large-scale offensive of Ukraine unfolding in early 2022. Instead, it was the former US president who executed it in Venezuela, in a move labeled illegal by many, whisking away the Kremlin's historic ally Nicolás Maduro, who is set to be tried in New York.

Public Fury, Private Calculations

In public, Russian officials have expressed fury, condemning the attack as a blatant breach of global norms and a worrying development. But behind the rhetoric, there is a feeling of reluctant admiration – and even jealousy – at the efficiency of a power grab that Russia once imagined, but could not carry out due to a series of intelligence blunders and Ukraine's strong resistance.

“The operation was carried out competently,” wrote the Kremlin-aligned online channel Dva Mayora. “Most likely, this is exactly how our 'military campaign' was meant to proceed: swift, decisive and conclusive. It’s difficult to imagine Russia's top general planned to be engaged in combat for four years.”

Such commentary have fed a mood of introspection among pro-war voices, with some openly questioning how Moscow's anticipated lightning war in Ukraine morphed into a long and bloody war.

A pro-Kremlin tech entrepreneur, said she felt “shame” on Russia's behalf given how brazen the US intervention seemed. “Within 24 hours, Trump arrested Maduro and seemingly wrapped up his own 'military mission,’” she stated.

Allies in Decline

For over twenty years, Venezuela sought to cultivate a web of partners opposed to Washington – from Moscow and Beijing to Cuba and Iran – hoping to helping to shape a new axis able to challenge Washington.

Yet despite Moscow's top diplomat pledging support for the Caracas government as recently as late December, hardly any experts ever expected Moscow would intervene meaningfully.

Mired in Ukraine, Russia has, over the past year, seen other important partners lose influence or deteriorate significantly – from Bashar al-Assad to an increasingly weakened Iran – exposing the limits of the Kremlin's reach.

“For Russia, the situation is profoundly awkward,” said a foreign policy analyst. “Venezuela is a close partner and ideological ally, and the two leaders have long-term relations, leaving Moscow with little choice but to express outrage. Yet providing any real assistance to a country so far away is simply impossible – for practical and operational reasons.”

Focus on the Main Front

Analysts point to a deeper strategic consideration. Putin's priority, analysts say, is Ukraine – and maintaining a productive dialogue with Trump on that issue greatly exceeds the fate of Caracas.

“The Russian and American leaders are currently focused on a far more consequential issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's goodwill towards Caracas, it is unlikely to upend a much larger strategic game with a critical partner over what it sees as a secondary concern,” Lukyanov added.

Concrete Losses and Emerging Risks

Still, Russia's loss of Venezuela carries multiple concrete consequences for Moscow. If a US-friendly government takes power in Caracas, American military specialists could gain access to large parts of the Venezuelan armed forces' arsenal, including advanced Russian-made systems.

This arsenal encompasses S-300VM air-defence systems sent over a decade ago, as well as an undisclosed number of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems provided during late 2025.

Moscow has also provided billions in loans to Venezuela, much of which it is now unlikely ever to be recovered.

A greater immediate worry for Moscow, however, is crude oil: American control over Venezuela's enormous oilfields could depress international oil prices, endangering one of Russia's most important sources of income.

“If our American 'partners' secure Venezuela’s oilfields, over 50% of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote a prominent Russian billionaire. “And it appears their plan will be to ensure that the price of our oil does not exceed $50 a barrel.”

A Dark Optimism

Still, some in Moscow see room for a grim silver lining. Trump's kidnapping of Maduro, they argue, could strike a decisive blow to the post-war global system and usher in a more openly 19th-century-style world – one where power, rather than rules, determines results.

“Team Trump is tough and cynical in advancing its national interests,” wrote Dmitry Medvedev with endorsement. “Ousting Maduro had no connection to drugs – only oil, and they freely acknowledge it. The principle of might makes right is evidently more powerful than ordinary justice.”