Starmer's Allies Begin 'Halt Andy Burnham' Campaign to Prevent Manchester Mayor's Commons Comeback
Close associates of Labour leader Keir Starmer have allegedly set in motion a coordinated campaign to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Greater Manchester Mayor, from making a comeback to the House of Commons. This action comes after the stepping down of a Manchester MP, which has triggered an impending byelection.
Major Barriers in the Selection Process
A number of figures on the party's ruling NEC have reportedly predicted it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to navigate the selection process. This is largely due to the sizable number of Starmer loyalists on the committee who are keen to head off any future challenge to Starmer's leadership.
The party apparatus is said to have mobilised following the announcement of the MP's planned resignation, with officials and MPs voicing warnings about the considerable expense and electoral danger of a resulting mayoral race in Greater Manchester.
The Mayor's Aspirations and Party Concerns
Andy Burnham has made no secret of his national ambitions. Previously, he caused consternation in Downing Street and among senior ministers when he remarked that numerous MPs had urged him to stand for the party leadership.
There has long been speculation that he is aiming for a return to parliament to potentially stand for the party leadership should a challenge to Sir Keir arise. Nevertheless, allies of the Mayor have warned against exaggerating the level of any planning, suggesting he is deeply committed to his job as mayor and would solely return national politics if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.
Current Climate and Public Approval
Against a backdrop of polls indicating Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's fate at the next election, Andy Burnham is seen as the sole prominent Labour personality with consistently positive public approval ratings.
Should Mr. Burnham decide to run, several obstacles remain. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the chances are stacked against him—and then win the by-election against competition from Reform UK and independent candidates, all prior to any potential bid for the leadership.
The 'Stop Andy' Campaign
Senior Labour figures have said that a "Block Burnham" operation is already in progress, with the party machinery being closely managed by key allies of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister himself commented that the byelection process was in its "early stages" and told his MPs to cease discussion of possible leadership challenges.
Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's departure was finalised, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Costs and Risks
Figures on the committee have allegedly cited not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could divert an estimated £500,000 in campaign funds from other key electoral battles across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.
A number of sources also expressed fears about Reform UK attempting to fill any vacancy created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant symbolic victory for them.
Role of the Unions and Procedural Fears
As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to run. There is also speculation the committee could enforce an all-female shortlist to block his nomination.
Yet, a supporter counselled against presuming the NEC would simply reject him, even though Sir Keir's team is largely believed to control it.
The unions hold a significant number of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are currently keeping their counsel, sources indicated they would be uncomfortable with anything seen as interference from Downing Street.
The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
By-election Battle
The seat in question has a sizable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is likely to launch a strong campaign, building on support in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on stronger footing in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter some pressure from independent candidates.
Should Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to launch a bid for the leadership, a hurdle that is far from certain given he is viewed with scepticism by a number of on the parliamentary party.
The departing MP confirmed he was resigning due to declining mental health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He is also subject to a parliamentary standards investigation concerning his membership in an inappropriate online group.
