‘The Situation is Dire’: Conflict on Iran Squeezes India's LPG Availability.

The repercussions of a conflict being fought nearly 3,000km away are now reaching India's households.

As US-Israeli strikes on Iran disrupt energy deliveries through the key maritime chokepoint, stocks of cooking gas are tightening across India, compelling restaurants to cut menus, close earlier and in some cases shut down altogether.

Social media is flooded by video clips showing crowds outside cooking-gas dealers across Indian metros and localities as concerns over fuel supplies grow. Restaurant kitchens appear the hardest struck: the most severe shortage is in food service establishments.

"The situation is dire. LPG simply is unavailable," says a spokesperson of the National Restaurant Association of India.

Most food outlets run either on commercial LPG cylinders or piped gas, and the scarcities are now being felt across the country. "A lot of restaurants have shut down - some in Delhi, many in the southern states. People are turning to coal and wood and electric cookers to keep their operations going."

Localized Effects

In Mumbai, accounts say up to a 20% of hospitality businesses are already operating at reduced capacity as cylinder availability dwindle. In the southern cities of Bangalore and Madras, some eateries say their gas stocks have dwindled with scarce alternatives. "Our menu is reduced to coffee and no food items - it is truly dismal. Commerce will take a hit," says a chain proprietor in Bengaluru.

Restaurant operators are seeking alternatives. "Food options are being cut, some are cutting lunch service and reducing hours," an industry representative says, adding that shutdowns are changing as supplies wax and wane. "A number of eateries in Delhi were shut yesterday - some have resumed operations. It's a dynamic scenario."

Retailers observe a surge in sales of electric cookers, with some saying they are facing stockouts.

Authority's View

Yet, the officials maintains there is adequate supply.

India has more than a vast number of home fuel subscribers and spokespersons say supplies are being prioritized to households as tensions from the regional hostilities impact energy markets.

Roughly 60% of India's LPG is sourced from abroad, and about 90% of those imports pass through the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow Gulf chokepoint now significantly disrupted by the war.

The oil ministry says that it directed refineries to maximise LPG output for home needs, enhancing domestic production by about 25%. Non-domestic supply is being reserved for vital industries such as medical and academic centers, while distribution will be "equitable and clear".

"Some panic booking and stockpiling has been caused by rumors. The regular refill period for home fuel remains about under three days," says a ministry representative.

Widening Concern

Now the worry is moving beyond kitchens. On social media, a widely shared video from Chennai shows a extended procession of scooters outside a fuel station. "Anxiety is palpable," the caption reads.

According to data from industry analysts, concerns about India's broader petroleum stocks may be exaggerated.

India imports almost all of its oil. Around a significant portion of its petroleum shipments - about 2.5 to 2.7 million barrels a day - travel through the waterway, largely from regional suppliers.

Even if petroleum transit through the Strait of Hormuz are hindered, the shortfall could be partly made up by higher imports of Russian petroleum, according to a sector expert.

Based on vessel tracking and credible market sources, additional Russian crude imports could reach around 1-1.2 million barrels a day, narrowing India's effective deficit from exposure to the Strait of Hormuz to about a substantial volume of barrels a day.

"Around 25-30 million Russian oil barrels are currently floating on ships in the Indian Ocean and, with only India and China as major buyers, those barrels remain a available backup," an analyst noted.

Cooking Gas: The Critical Weakness

The key weakness is kitchen fuel, commentators observe.

India consumes roughly 1 million barrels a day, but produces only a minority share domestically, importing the rest - 80–90% through the Strait.

Refineries can modify output to squeeze out a bit more LPG, but even a moderate increase would only lift domestic supply to about 47-50% of demand, leaving the country largely dependent on imports.

In short: "Oil import vulnerability can be somewhat alleviated through alternative sourcing. Fuel availability remains fairly adequate. Cooking gas supply is the critical issue to monitor in the coming weeks."

What may be intensifying the concern on the ground is not just limited availability but patchy deliveries - and the usual problem of panic buying.

An industry representative alleges price gouging.

"Distributors are exploiting the situation - illegally trading canisters and selling them at a premium. In one small town, I heard of cylinders being hoarded and sold at a premium."

For now, India's oil supplies may be cushioned by international market dynamics. But in restaurants across the country, the more pressing concern is simple: how to get the next gas canister.